Kalshi unveils ‘Midterms Hub’ ahead of 2026 elections, but one state warns it could cost you your vote

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Midterm elections are fast approaching, and prediction market Kalshi has launched a new online hub for forecasting the results in real time. Dubbed “Midterms Hub,” it also shows polling results, fundraising information and even historical election data.

Through prediction markets, users purchase “yes or no” contracts where they essentially bet on whether a certain event will happen, like who will become a state’s next governor or which party will take control of Congress.

The hub breaks down what users can expect in individual U.S. House and Senate races, as well as state gubernatorial races, based on the latest odds for each market and across a map of the entire country. What Kalshi is calling a “one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting” allows them to compare prediction market odds with what voter surveys are showing.

It also features curated news and analysis from various outlets.

‘The wisdom of the crowds’

Unbiased. Straight Facts.TM

Users of Kalshi and Polymarket have already traded nearly $200 million on the results of the upcoming midterm elections, according to a recent NBC News analysis.

Kalshi says prediction markets can provide a clearer picture of races than traditional methods like polling. In a statement, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said prediction markets are hard to infiltrate with political bias.

“They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric,” Mansour said. “That kind of clarity is rare right now and that’s what people are getting with the Midterms Hub.”

Kalshi says its prices are based on which outcomes traders are willing to risk money on rather than voters’ stated preferences – like a Democratic voter who bets the Republican party will keep control of the Senate. More than $30 million has already been traded on contracts tied to which party will win the House and Senate in 2026, according to CNBC.

Betting on elections

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity in recent years. They allow users to place wagers on a range of events from sports to weather to entertainment.

A 2024 court decision cleared the way for betting on federal elections, but critics argue allowing wagers could cast doubt on elections’ integrity. At the time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission fought to keep betting on elections from being legal, raising concerns that the platforms could be used by foreign individuals or governments “directly or indirectly to manipulate the election-contract market.”

On Tuesday, the Wisconsin Election Commission warned residents that betting on elections they vote in is illegal in the state and could cause their ballots to be disqualified.

Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement and legal counsel, responded, saying “threatening to prosecute Wisconsin voters and strip away their voting rights for engaging in legal trading activity is unconstitutional and illegal.”

“And if Wisconsin believes election markets certified by the CFTC are improper, then it should sue the CFTC — not try to prosecute voters and take away their voting rights,” he added. “The Wisconsin Elections Commission should retract this guidance before courts are required to force them to do so.”

Ann Jacobs, a member and the former chair of the Wisconsin Elections Commission, said the state law blocking people from betting on election outcomes is “a really good law for good reasons.”

“You want people who have the ability to vote, to vote based upon who they believe is the best person for the job, not to line their pocketbooks,” she said during a meeting earlier this month.

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