Canada blames Trump for drop in US travel, but data tells a more complex story

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The Canadian government released a new report this week detailing declining tourism numbers to the U.S. and blaming the Trump administration for it. Turns out, the numbers may not be as bad as government officials are putting on. 

In a new report, the Canadian government said travel to the U.S. fell 25% in 2025, with Canadians making 29.1 million trips to the U.S., down from 39 million the year before. 

It blamed President Donald Trump, his recent tariffs and other tensions between the countries for the decline.

“Following the change in the U.S. administration in early 2025 and the implementation of America First policies, Canadian travel sentiment shifted abruptly,” Laura Presley and Carter McCormick, analysts with Statistics Canada, said in the new report. They went on to add that numbers haven’t rebounded in the beginning months of 2026, “signaling a persistent shift away from the United States by Canadian residents in their travel preferences.”

However, the report failed to acknowledge other facts, conditions and external factors that could also give context to 2025 tourism numbers. 

The facts of it all

Let’s look at the numbers as they stand. Canada says its residents took 29.1 million trips to the U.S. in 2025.

Now, compared to previous years, those numbers are low. Canadians made 39 million trips to the U.S. in 2024, and 30.2 million in 2023.

Canadian Government

However, when you look back even further, specifically at years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2025 numbers don’t look so bad. 

In fact, in 2019, there were fewer Canadian trips to the U.S. than in 2025, with just 25 million trips. So, if those were the pre-pandemic numbers, why were numbers so much higher in 2023 and 2024? 

Well, in late 2022, COVID-19 restrictions were fully lifted, meaning Canadians could officially return to the U.S. without any restrictions, vaccine requirements or any other potential roadblocks tied to the pandemic. 

Now, the latest numbers could just be signaling a return to pre-pandemic normalcy — a fact Canada didn’t note in its report, despite making COVID-19 comparisons in previous years’ reports. 

The decline in numbers could also have to do with costs. Trump’s tariffs have inherently made things more expensive for those of us in the U.S., a fact that could be deterring Canadian travelers who aren’t feeling the same effects. 

A look at 2026, so far

In addition to recapping 2025 tourism numbers, the Canadian government also offered a glimpse into 2026. 

It noted that numbers have not returned to the historically high 2024 levels in 2026, which is true, but it didn’t recognize that Canadian tourism has seen a steady month-to-month increase so far this year. 

The U.S. also remains the leading foreign destination for Canadian travelers.

Could politics, the president and tariffs be playing a role in the numbers? Possibly. But there’s no way to prove that. 

Reporting on Canada’s data

With Canada’s latest data, and how it chose to lay it out, reporting continues to spread what some may see as a skewed narrative. 

News organizations like The Washington Post and Axios chose to cover the 2025 drop in tourism from Canada, both continuing Canada’s narrative. 

The Washington Post titled its article, “Canadian visits to U.S. plummet amid Trump tariffs, ‘51st state’ talk,” despite there being no direct ways to prove Trump’s actions are the cause. 

Meanwhile, Axios took an economic approach, headlining its article, “Canadians’ travel pullback costs U.S. tourism billions.” 

It, like the Washington Post, stuck with Canada’s narrative without offering context that may have Americans viewing the data a bit differently.

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