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July isn’t over, but retailers are already clearing beach towels and sunscreen from their shelves to make room for binders, lunchboxes and backpacks.
For American families, the 2026 back-to-school season is arriving earlier and carrying a heavier price tag.
A new analysis published Monday by the Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation, two progressive think tanks, found that a typical basket of school supplies costs 7.7% more than it did a year ago. The cost of common school lunch items rose even faster, climbing nearly 11%.
The report notably added blueberries to its list of food items, which have seen a 48% price jump since last year due to poor growing conditions and higher fuel costs. That cost increase is more than double the next-highest food item increase, something that fluctuates quickly enough to be different by the time school actually begins.
Prices jumped 26.8% for lunchboxes, 23% for notebooks, 22.2% for index cards and 20% for notebook paper, according to the groups’ survey.
These increases far outpaced the overall U.S. inflation rate of 3.5%. The groups attributed that disparity partly to tariffs, because many school supplies are manufactured overseas, leaving families to absorb at least some of the added cost.
For example, the analysis cited Newell Brands, the maker of Sharpie, Paper Mate, Expo and Elmer’s products. In October, 2025, the company’s president, Chris Peterson, acknowledged that the company had “navigated significant trade disruptions” and had raised prices in response to tariffs.
With prices climbing, shoppers are starting earlier with hopes of getting better deals.
Sixty-two percent of shoppers had begun back-to-school shopping by early July, down slightly from 67% at the same point in 2025, but significantly higher than the 55% in 2024, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey.
But the longer shopping season might only be prolonging the misery. According to a new report by Deloitte, half of parents said they will cut back on other expenses to make room for back-to-school spending.
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