Cory Porter discusses how the disappearing nuclear taboo has affected how nations view modern warfare and power.
By Cory Porter Credit: The Myriad News
Nuclear weapons emerge across the globe
On Aug. 6 and 9, 1945, the United States dropped the world’s first-ever atomic bombs onto Japan. The bombs caused incalculable destruction in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, bringing World War II to a close with the Allies as the victors. No other atomic bombs have been used in the world since.
Nuclear weapons have anything but disappeared from our society since that time. Four years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the USSR acquired its first nuclear weapon, with the UK, France, and China following over the next 15 years. During the Cold War, the US and the USSR created a staggering combined total of more than 114,000 nuclear weapons. India developed nuclear weapons in the 1970s, and Pakistan soon followed.
Nations such as Iraq and Libya had active nuclear weapons programs at a time where murderous dictators led both countries. Even with the extent of nuclear weapons development globally, they have only been used twice by the US during World War II.
The nuclear taboo and what it means
We can attribute this to what some may call the “Nuclear Taboo.” This taboo is a normative belief that nuclear weapons should not be used in war due to the catastrophic amount of damage they do. Not only has it been adopted by countries over the years, but it has also been ingrained into the belief system of governments and civilians alike.
This idea has manifested itself into the creation of documents like the Treaty of Nuclear Non-Proliferation of 1970, which aimed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons or the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties signed by the US and the USSR which sought to reduce their nuclear arsenals.
Although most nations agreed to reduce and eventually rid the world of all nuclear weapons in the coming decades, the opposite seems to be occurring. Countries like Iran and North Korea aim to create atomic weapons, and intensifying global conflicts between nations may lead to the creation of more damaging and advanced nuclear weapons, undoing years of progress towards achieving an eventual nuclear-free world.
Under the Trump administration, this destigmatization of nuclear weapons has only heightened. In August of 2017, President Trump tweeted that his first order as president was to “renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal…[so that] there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!”
The previous day, President Trump also claimed that if North Korea continued to threaten the United States, they would see “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” With this rhetoric, President Trump brought down decades of progress towards a denuclearized world. His casual attitude towards the usage of these weapons and threats of nuclear warfare sent a signal to the entire globe: a new age of nuclear weapons was upon us.
Nuclear weapons are important to modern nations
Before the Trump administration, the notion that nuclear weapons would be used as a first-strike attack was nearly inconceivable: nuclear weapons were to be used for deterrence, to prevent countries from doing things. Nuclear weapons were less of a military weapon and more so a strategic tool, enabling nations to become more powerful and increase their global standing.
It is why the US and other countries are intent on preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. If Iran were to get even just one nuclear weapon, they would have leverage and power previously inaccessible to them. They would pose a threat to the US’s European allies and Israel, destabilize the power balance in the Middle East and set off an arms race with other nations in the region seeking to acquire their own nuclear arsenals.
Since President Trump first took office, the way countries view nuclear weapons has changed dramatically. In 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal signed by the US, China, Russia, the UK, France and Germany in 2015, aiming to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities in exchange for lower sanctions on Tehran. As a result, in 2020, Iran attempted to withdraw from the deal and continue their pursuit of nuclear capabilities.
The future of nuclear weapons is the end of the nuclear taboo
The US and Russia have made no progress in their discussion to renew the New START Treaty that expires in 2021, which aims to reduce both nations’ nuclear arsenals. If not renewed, it will be the first time in history since 1974 where neither of the nation’s nuclear capabilities is regulated. The director of the nuclear arms control program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Shannon Kile, stated, “The loss of key channels of communication between Russia and the USA… could potentially lead to a new nuclear arms race”.
However, instead of an arms race just between the US and Russia, there are new superpowers to look out for. Across the globe, tensions between China and India continue to rise as troubles over their shared 2500 mile border increase. Both nations seek to increase and modernize their nuclear arsenals at rates never seen before. Furthermore, China has rejected the US proposal that it should join future nuclear reduction talks, furthering the growing gap of nations’ commitment to eventual disarmament.
While the future of the role of nuclear weapons in the world is unclear, one thing is for sure: the days of the nuclear taboo and deterrence are over. A new era of arms races, increased arsenals and advanced weapons could soon be upon us if the normalization of nuclear weapons continues.