Suffolk University on Thursday released an Ohio poll for USA Today that finds a strong 59-26 majority of likely voters saying they’ll oppose Issue 1, a Republican-backed constitutional amendment that would require 60% voter approval to pass future amendments and a more burdensome number of voter signatures to put them on the ballot. This is the very first survey that anyone has publicized of the Aug. 8 special election, a contest Republicans instigated in order to make it more difficult for pro-choice advocates to pass their own amendment this November to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.
We always caution that you should never let one poll determine your outlook of a race―even when there is literally just one poll―and that’s especially true when it comes to referendums like this one. These sorts of contests can be challenging to survey in part because, unlike most general elections, voters can’t simply rely on candidates’ party labels to help them decide.
Pollsters instead need to quickly summarize the referendum’s question for voters, who may not always fully understand the choice in front of them, and respondents may respond differently based on how the question is worded. This race presents an additional complication since no one’s sure what turnout will look like: As the head of the Ohio League of Women Voters, which opposes Issue 1, recently said, “[I]n the 200-year history of our state, the state legislature never has put an issue of such great importance on an August special election.”