For the first time this year in my extensive polling, the newest survey out of Georgia shows a material rebound for President Donald Trump and for other Republicans as we head into the heart of election season.
To be sure, serious hurdles remain, and the economic mood remains problematic. But after a drumbeat of steadily worsening polls for Trump and the GOP, this poll provides a glimmer of optimism and perhaps a roadmap, as well, for the way forward toward victory in the midterms.
Trump’s job approval improves to a deficit of -8% net, with 45% approval and 53% disapproval, in a Georgia poll by Wick. While still underwater, that ratio is actually quite good compared to recent presidential job approval ratings. More importantly, it signals a materially positive move for Trump compared to my own recent polling.
For context, my most recent polling of swing states showed Trump at -15% in Wisconsin in March, -16% in Arizona in April, and -22% in Michigan in May. For Georgia, neighboring North Carolina provides the best comparison state, which showed -14% approval for Trump in my last poll there.
In addition to Trump’s improvement, the key statewide races in Georgia are tight and very winnable for the superb Republican nominees. Right now, outsider businessman and GOP nominee Rick Jackson holds a slight lead over Keisha Lance Bottoms for governor, 43.2% to 42.7%.
Jackson ran a superb primary campaign and has the personal wealth to finance an equally impressive general election race. His Horatio Alger-like life story clearly inspires Georgians. Plus, once he exposes the soft-on-crime failures Bottoms made as mayor of Atlanta, this race should move into the GOP column.
For the U.S. Senate, this poll should debunk the ridiculous Fox News outlier that claimed Democrat Jon Ossoff holds a commanding +13% lead over current Republican Rep. Mike Collins. Instead, my polling shows a tight race, just outside the margin of error, with Collins trailing by only 3.8%, 42.9% to 46.7%.
Given the incumbency advantages for Ossoff and a massive campaign war chest, that closeness should indeed worry Democrats that this seat can be flipped to red. Ossoff has never been an ideological or stylistic fit to represent a swing state like Georgia, which still leans slightly to the right politically and culturally. For example, radical advocacy group ProgressivePunch grades Ossoff’s votes as more liberal than even Adam Schiff, the leftist senator from deeply blue California.
So what explains this shift, this new possible reversal of fortune for Team Trump and the broader movement heading into November? It appears three factors are at work here:
- The Iran War (Mostly) Ends: This conflict has been very unpopular. In fact, dismay over the Middle East intervention has been steadily growing on the political Right across my polling. Concurrently, support for Israel drops like a rock. But with a tenuous peace now apparently at hand, oil markets careen lower in price. With gasoline prices at the pump well below the highs of just weeks ago, stressed consumers start to see better days ahead. The message to the White House and all GOP leaders: Get out of this war and focus at home!
- Patriotism Rebound: America 250 celebrations clearly lifted the national mood. Far away from the cynical coastal metropolises, Americans embraced this big birthday with gusto. Even in a divided political era, goodwill resonated and patriotism pervaded, at least among Republican and independent voters. The entire world coming to America for the World Cup and thoroughly marveling at the beauty and hospitality of this land also provided a big morale boost.
- Democrat Radicalism: Even though voters remain frustrated with the economy and largely blame Trump and the GOP, the alternative is worse in the minds of sensible citizens. The Democrat brand remains in collapse across my polling, and this was true even when Trump’s levels reached second-term lows. So, the Democrats remain unable to seize on political potential because their party is simply too beholden to extremists who openly embrace Marxism and blatantly hate America, white people, men, and Christians. The GOP is blessed with super-unlikable and unattractive opponents.
So let this Georgia poll serve as a rallying point. The battle is still uphill to maintain the House of Representatives, but it is not out of reach for the patriotic populists. If peace persists and the focus returns to the pre-war trajectory of improving real wages and kitchen-table issues, then opportunity beckons.
Let’s win.
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